Topics
Explore
Featured Insight
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
Featured Insight
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
Featured Insight
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
Featured Insight
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
Data
Reports
Acts and Gazettes
Insights
Dashboards
Annual Budget Dashboard
Budget Promises
Fiscal Indicators
Fuel Price Tracker
IMF Tracker
Infrastructure Watch
PF Wire
About Us
EN
English
සිංහල
தமிழ்
;
Thank You
Free and Open Access to
Public Finance Data and Analysis
Home
Topics
International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund
Insights and analysis on the 2023 IMF programme.
Sri Lanka met 29 IMF commitments and failed 3 by end-May
Sri Lanka had met 29 of the 100 trackable commitments of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme and had failed on three as of the end of May 2023, according to ‘The IMF Tracker’ dashboard of Verité Research.
From The PF Wire
Source:
Economy Next
IMF to discuss Sri Lanka review timing with new go...
The IMF is eager to work with Sri Lanka's new President Dissanayake and will soon discuss the timing of the third program review, acknowledging the country’s progress in meeting key economic targets.
Read More
Source:
Daily Mirror
Reform delays could suspend IMF programme, jeopard...
The Bloomberg Intelligence report warns that Sri Lanka's economic recovery is at risk if reforms stall after the presidential elections, potentially leading to a suspension of the IMF program. It emphasizes the need...
Read More
Source:
The Morning
IMF warns of high govt. domestic financing risks
The IMF warns that Sri Lanka faces high domestic financing needs in 2024, projected at 5.8% of GDP due to a large fiscal deficit and limited external financing options.
Read More
Insight on International Monetary Fund
Sri Lanka’s IMF programme was supposed t...
On June 12, the...
30% of IMF programme commitments due in...
By the end of April 2024, Sri Lanka has n...
IMF Programme: Performance Evaluation (F...
Sri Lanka verifiably failed to meet 33% o...
Sri Lanka’s Current IMF Programme: 110 o...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has...
Sri Lanka met 46 IMF commitments and fai...
The transparency in Sri Lanka’s ong...
Sri Lanka met 41 IMF commitments and fai...
Sri Lanka verifiably met 41 of the 73 trackable commitments that were due for completion by end-O...
IMF programme’s transparency falls to lo...
The latest update from 'IMF Tracker&r...
Sri Lanka Met 38 IMF Commitments and Fai...
Sri Lanka verif...
Sri Lanka met 35 IMF commitments and fai...
The sh...
page
1
of
2
‹
1
2
›
Featured
Sri Lanka's Fiscal for Targets for 2023
Sri Lanka Budget 2023: Government revenue is expected to be 11.3% of GDP in 2023, according to projections in the Budget 2023.
Read More
Too Many ‘Known Unknowns’ in Sri Lanka’s IMF Progr...
This article was compiled by Dr. Nishan de Mel. Dr. Nishan de Mel is the Executive Director of Verité Research and an economist with extensive acade...
Read More
Sharing the cost of the crisis: The need to restru...
This article was compiled by Professor Udara Peiris. Udara Peiris joined Oberlin in the fall of 2022. He was previously a tenured Associate Professor of Fi...
Read More
