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Nishan de Mel, Executive Director of Verité Research, warned at a forum in Colombo that Sri Lanka's current debt sustainability path, as outlined by the IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), is precarious and not grounded in sound data. He pointed out that the IMF's assumptions on yields are too optimistic compared to the current higher rates, which could lead to unsustainable debt levels unless revenue to GDP exceeds 27 percent. De Mel argued that the ongoing shallow debt restructuring efforts are insufficient, emphasizing that deeper restructuring typically leads to better outcomes. He also suggested that Sri Lanka should undertake a new DSA to set more realistic targets and improve the chances of securing better terms from creditors.
De Mel further criticized the lack of transparency in the Finance Ministry's budget proposals, accusing it of willful misrepresentation. He stressed the need for the government to justify its fiscal projections with detailed methodologies to ensure accuracy. Independent analysts have consistently made more accurate projections than the Ministry, highlighting the need for greater accountability. De Mel called for a sensible and truthful approach in both the political and bureaucratic spheres to guide Sri Lanka toward stability.
