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The Maldives’ primary deficit still remains high
The Maldives’ primary deficit has increased since 2020, raising concerns about the country’s debt sustainability. This contrasts with Sri Lanka, where the primary deficit also increased but recovered, following its suspension of debt repayments, along with a fiscal consolidation program. A primary deficit—or negative primary balance—occurs when government revenue is insufficient to cover non-interest expenditure. All deficits are funded through borrowing, which can contribute to long-term fiscal risks. Before 2020, the Maldives’ primary balance was already in deficit, ranging from 1%–5%. In 2020, it climbed above 20% due to the sharp decline in revenue and economic activity caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Although the tourism-dependent economy has begun to recover, the primary deficit remains high—around 10%—as spending continues to outpace revenue. Sri Lanka also faced an increased primary deficit in 2020 and 2021, driven partly by the pandemic but largely due to misguided fiscal policies. This led to the country’s worst debt crisis and a default on external debt. Sri Lanka has since shown signs of recovery, achieving a positive primary surplus in 2023 and 2024 with support from an IMF program focused on fiscal consolidation and revenue enhancement. Moving forward, it is important for the Maldives to identify and address its fiscal challenges, such as the higher primary deficit, promptly, to avoid a crisis similar to Sri Lanka. Previous analysis has highlighted that the country’s reserves are on a declining trajectory similar to Sri Lanka and could be depleted within the next two years unless decisive corrective measures are implemented.
Featured Insight
The Maldives’ primary deficit still remains high
The Maldives’ primary deficit has increased since 2020, raising concerns about the country’s debt sustainability. This contrasts with Sri Lanka, where the primary deficit also increased but recovered, following its suspension of debt repayments, along with a fiscal consolidation program. A primary deficit—or negative primary balance—occurs when government revenue is insufficient to cover non-interest expenditure. All deficits are funded through borrowing, which can contribute to long-term fiscal risks. Before 2020, the Maldives’ primary balance was already in deficit, ranging from 1%–5%. In 2020, it climbed above 20% due to the sharp decline in revenue and economic activity caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Although the tourism-dependent economy has begun to recover, the primary deficit remains high—around 10%—as spending continues to outpace revenue. Sri Lanka also faced an increased primary deficit in 2020 and 2021, driven partly by the pandemic but largely due to misguided fiscal policies. This led to the country’s worst debt crisis and a default on external debt. Sri Lanka has since shown signs of recovery, achieving a positive primary surplus in 2023 and 2024 with support from an IMF program focused on fiscal consolidation and revenue enhancement. Moving forward, it is important for the Maldives to identify and address its fiscal challenges, such as the higher primary deficit, promptly, to avoid a crisis similar to Sri Lanka. Previous analysis has highlighted that the country’s reserves are on a declining trajectory similar to Sri Lanka and could be depleted within the next two years unless decisive corrective measures are implemented.
Featured Insight
The Maldives’ primary deficit still remains high
The Maldives’ primary deficit has increased since 2020, raising concerns about the country’s debt sustainability. This contrasts with Sri Lanka, where the primary deficit also increased but recovered, following its suspension of debt repayments, along with a fiscal consolidation program. A primary deficit—or negative primary balance—occurs when government revenue is insufficient to cover non-interest expenditure. All deficits are funded through borrowing, which can contribute to long-term fiscal risks. Before 2020, the Maldives’ primary balance was already in deficit, ranging from 1%–5%. In 2020, it climbed above 20% due to the sharp decline in revenue and economic activity caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Although the tourism-dependent economy has begun to recover, the primary deficit remains high—around 10%—as spending continues to outpace revenue. Sri Lanka also faced an increased primary deficit in 2020 and 2021, driven partly by the pandemic but largely due to misguided fiscal policies. This led to the country’s worst debt crisis and a default on external debt. Sri Lanka has since shown signs of recovery, achieving a positive primary surplus in 2023 and 2024 with support from an IMF program focused on fiscal consolidation and revenue enhancement. Moving forward, it is important for the Maldives to identify and address its fiscal challenges, such as the higher primary deficit, promptly, to avoid a crisis similar to Sri Lanka. Previous analysis has highlighted that the country’s reserves are on a declining trajectory similar to Sri Lanka and could be depleted within the next two years unless decisive corrective measures are implemented.
Featured Insight
The Maldives’ primary deficit still remains high
The Maldives’ primary deficit has increased since 2020, raising concerns about the country’s debt sustainability. This contrasts with Sri Lanka, where the primary deficit also increased but recovered, following its suspension of debt repayments, along with a fiscal consolidation program. A primary deficit—or negative primary balance—occurs when government revenue is insufficient to cover non-interest expenditure. All deficits are funded through borrowing, which can contribute to long-term fiscal risks. Before 2020, the Maldives’ primary balance was already in deficit, ranging from 1%–5%. In 2020, it climbed above 20% due to the sharp decline in revenue and economic activity caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Although the tourism-dependent economy has begun to recover, the primary deficit remains high—around 10%—as spending continues to outpace revenue. Sri Lanka also faced an increased primary deficit in 2020 and 2021, driven partly by the pandemic but largely due to misguided fiscal policies. This led to the country’s worst debt crisis and a default on external debt. Sri Lanka has since shown signs of recovery, achieving a positive primary surplus in 2023 and 2024 with support from an IMF program focused on fiscal consolidation and revenue enhancement. Moving forward, it is important for the Maldives to identify and address its fiscal challenges, such as the higher primary deficit, promptly, to avoid a crisis similar to Sri Lanka. Previous analysis has highlighted that the country’s reserves are on a declining trajectory similar to Sri Lanka and could be depleted within the next two years unless decisive corrective measures are implemented.
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Insights and analysis of government revenue.
Revenue Foregone by Government Due to Tax Concessions
For the fiscal year 2022/23 (April to March), tax concessions resulted in a total of LKR 978 billion in foregone revenue, the government reported on 31 March. The...
From The PF Wire
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Economy Next
Sri Lanka legal alcohol sales down 19-pct in 2023
In 2023, legal alcohol sales in Sri Lanka saw a 19 percent decline due to an economic crisis and tax hikes, with alcohol production decreasing from 43.3 million liters in 2022 to 35.1 million liters, marking an 8.2 percent de...
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Source:
Economy Next
Sri Lanka official remittances up 46-pct in Octobe...
In October 2023, Sri Lanka's official remittances surged to $517.4 million, a 46% increase from a year prior, attributed to improved exchange rates and expatriates sending more earnings. Despite this rise, official remittances have decre...
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Source:
EconomyNext
Sri Lanka President knew revenues will be lost, VA...
Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa knew revenue will be lost by tax cuts but he considered it an investment, and an 8 percent tax rate slashed from 15 percent, will remain unchanged for 5 -years, a top official said.
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Insight on Revenue
2020 Mid-year Fiscal Performance
Latest figures released by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka show that rev...
Sri Lanka’s Fiscal Performance (2020 vs...
The latest figures released by the Ministry of Finance show that the f...
Sri Lanka’s already lagging Tax to GDP r...
Sri Lanka’s Tax/GDP ratio has been declining with further declin...
The budget deficit has increased in 2019...
The recently released figures for 2019 show that government revenue ha...
Consistent revenue shortfalls lead to mo...
The deviation in government revenue from...
Changes in Special Commodity Levy (SCL)...
On 22 May 2020, Sri Lanka made changes to...
Cigarette Taxes: The cost of failure
The Government proposed a policy to syste...
Cigarette Taxation: 20 Billion Extra Rev...
The Government could raise an extra Rs. 2...
Sri Lanka’s Fiscal Outlook 2020
The International Monterey Fund estimates...
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Featured
An Overview of IMF Extended Fund Facility
This article was compiled by Professor Udara Peiris and Raj Prabu Rajakulendran. Udara Peiris joined Oberlin in the fall of 2022. He was previously a tenur...
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Sri Lanka’s Current IMF Programme: 110 ongoing com...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its evaluation of Sri Lanka’s performance in the first phase or ‘first term’ of the ongoing Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme, which commenced in March 2023.
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January 2025 Fuel Price Update: Market and Formula...
On 01 January 2025, the market prices of 92-octane petrol and auto diesel remained unchanged. However, the Public Finance Fuel Price Tracker indicates that both fuel types...
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