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The Maldives’ primary deficit still remains high
The Maldives’ primary deficit has increased since 2020, raising concerns about the country’s debt sustainability. This contrasts with Sri Lanka, where the primary deficit also increased but recovered, following its suspension of debt repayments, along with a fiscal consolidation program. A primary deficit—or negative primary balance—occurs when government revenue is insufficient to cover non-interest expenditure. All deficits are funded through borrowing, which can contribute to long-term fiscal risks. Before 2020, the Maldives’ primary balance was already in deficit, ranging from 1%–5%. In 2020, it climbed above 20% due to the sharp decline in revenue and economic activity caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Although the tourism-dependent economy has begun to recover, the primary deficit remains high—around 10%—as spending continues to outpace revenue. Sri Lanka also faced an increased primary deficit in 2020 and 2021, driven partly by the pandemic but largely due to misguided fiscal policies. This led to the country’s worst debt crisis and a default on external debt. Sri Lanka has since shown signs of recovery, achieving a positive primary surplus in 2023 and 2024 with support from an IMF program focused on fiscal consolidation and revenue enhancement. Moving forward, it is important for the Maldives to identify and address its fiscal challenges, such as the higher primary deficit, promptly, to avoid a crisis similar to Sri Lanka. Previous analysis has highlighted that the country’s reserves are on a declining trajectory similar to Sri Lanka and could be depleted within the next two years unless decisive corrective measures are implemented.
Featured Insight
The Maldives’ primary deficit still remains high
The Maldives’ primary deficit has increased since 2020, raising concerns about the country’s debt sustainability. This contrasts with Sri Lanka, where the primary deficit also increased but recovered, following its suspension of debt repayments, along with a fiscal consolidation program. A primary deficit—or negative primary balance—occurs when government revenue is insufficient to cover non-interest expenditure. All deficits are funded through borrowing, which can contribute to long-term fiscal risks. Before 2020, the Maldives’ primary balance was already in deficit, ranging from 1%–5%. In 2020, it climbed above 20% due to the sharp decline in revenue and economic activity caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Although the tourism-dependent economy has begun to recover, the primary deficit remains high—around 10%—as spending continues to outpace revenue. Sri Lanka also faced an increased primary deficit in 2020 and 2021, driven partly by the pandemic but largely due to misguided fiscal policies. This led to the country’s worst debt crisis and a default on external debt. Sri Lanka has since shown signs of recovery, achieving a positive primary surplus in 2023 and 2024 with support from an IMF program focused on fiscal consolidation and revenue enhancement. Moving forward, it is important for the Maldives to identify and address its fiscal challenges, such as the higher primary deficit, promptly, to avoid a crisis similar to Sri Lanka. Previous analysis has highlighted that the country’s reserves are on a declining trajectory similar to Sri Lanka and could be depleted within the next two years unless decisive corrective measures are implemented.
Featured Insight
The Maldives’ primary deficit still remains high
The Maldives’ primary deficit has increased since 2020, raising concerns about the country’s debt sustainability. This contrasts with Sri Lanka, where the primary deficit also increased but recovered, following its suspension of debt repayments, along with a fiscal consolidation program. A primary deficit—or negative primary balance—occurs when government revenue is insufficient to cover non-interest expenditure. All deficits are funded through borrowing, which can contribute to long-term fiscal risks. Before 2020, the Maldives’ primary balance was already in deficit, ranging from 1%–5%. In 2020, it climbed above 20% due to the sharp decline in revenue and economic activity caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Although the tourism-dependent economy has begun to recover, the primary deficit remains high—around 10%—as spending continues to outpace revenue. Sri Lanka also faced an increased primary deficit in 2020 and 2021, driven partly by the pandemic but largely due to misguided fiscal policies. This led to the country’s worst debt crisis and a default on external debt. Sri Lanka has since shown signs of recovery, achieving a positive primary surplus in 2023 and 2024 with support from an IMF program focused on fiscal consolidation and revenue enhancement. Moving forward, it is important for the Maldives to identify and address its fiscal challenges, such as the higher primary deficit, promptly, to avoid a crisis similar to Sri Lanka. Previous analysis has highlighted that the country’s reserves are on a declining trajectory similar to Sri Lanka and could be depleted within the next two years unless decisive corrective measures are implemented.
Featured Insight
The Maldives’ primary deficit still remains high
The Maldives’ primary deficit has increased since 2020, raising concerns about the country’s debt sustainability. This contrasts with Sri Lanka, where the primary deficit also increased but recovered, following its suspension of debt repayments, along with a fiscal consolidation program. A primary deficit—or negative primary balance—occurs when government revenue is insufficient to cover non-interest expenditure. All deficits are funded through borrowing, which can contribute to long-term fiscal risks. Before 2020, the Maldives’ primary balance was already in deficit, ranging from 1%–5%. In 2020, it climbed above 20% due to the sharp decline in revenue and economic activity caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Although the tourism-dependent economy has begun to recover, the primary deficit remains high—around 10%—as spending continues to outpace revenue. Sri Lanka also faced an increased primary deficit in 2020 and 2021, driven partly by the pandemic but largely due to misguided fiscal policies. This led to the country’s worst debt crisis and a default on external debt. Sri Lanka has since shown signs of recovery, achieving a positive primary surplus in 2023 and 2024 with support from an IMF program focused on fiscal consolidation and revenue enhancement. Moving forward, it is important for the Maldives to identify and address its fiscal challenges, such as the higher primary deficit, promptly, to avoid a crisis similar to Sri Lanka. Previous analysis has highlighted that the country’s reserves are on a declining trajectory similar to Sri Lanka and could be depleted within the next two years unless decisive corrective measures are implemented.
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வரவு-செலவுத்திட்ட பற்றாக்குறைக்கு நிதியளித்தல் தொடர்பான பகுப்பாய்வுகளும் விரிவான பார்வைகளும்..
2014 முதல் இலங்கையின் ஒதுக்குகளில் ஏற்பட்ட மாற்றம்
பெப்ரவரி 2022ல் அறிக்கையிடப்பட்ட மொத்த அலுவல்சார் ஒதுக்குகள் ஐ.அ.டொ 2,311 மில்லியனாகக் காணப்பட்டன. அதில் 98%...
பி.எஃப். வயரில் இணைப்பிலிருந்து
Source:
Daily FT
Fitch upgrades Bank of Ceylon’s VR and Foreign-Cur...
The Bank of Ceylon’s (BOC) Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) has been updated to ‘CC’ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).
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Source:
Ceylon Today
Govt. obtained USD 1,873M in foreign financing
The Government has obtained foreign financing of USD 1,873.5 million by entering into eight agreements with foreign development partners and lending agencies in the first nine months of 2022.
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Source:
Daily News
IMF, Sri Lanka begin talks for bailout package
A preliminary round of discussions with the International Monetary Fund, with the aim of finding solutions to the financial crisis facing Sri Lanka, was held yesterday afternoon (24) at the Presidential Secretariat under the patronage of Pre...
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நுண்ணறிவு நிதியளிப்பு
Fiscal Performance From January to April...
Latest figures...
இலங்கை மற்றும் பங்களாதேஷுக்கு இடையில் பே...
சமீபத்தில், பங்...
Sri Lanka’s Bilateral Swap Agreements
A foreign currency swap is an agreement t...
2020 Records the Highest Budget Deficit...
The budget balance for 2020 is -LKR 2,090 billion (-14.0% of GDP) while the budget balanc...
2020ல் இலங்கை யாரிடமிருந்து கடன் வாங்கிய...
2020ல் இலங்கை...
සහන විදේශ ණය - ඇත්තටම අපිට සහනයක් ද?
ශී්ර ලංකාවේ ව්යාපෘති බොහෝමයක්, ප්රධාන වශයෙන...
Government Budget Balances, 2000 to 2021
The bar chart illustrates the primary balance and overall balance as...
Financing Infrastructure: The (non) conc...
Recently Verite Research held a seminar on the potential (non) concess...
Foreign Financial Assistance in the Time...
USD 873.5 Million worth foreign financial assistance has been approved so far for Sri Lanka to fi...
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விவரணம்
Is Maldives going down Sri Lanka's path?: Concern...
The graphs below depict the Primary Balances and budget balances as a percentage of GDP for Maldives and Sri Lanka. Besides 2017 and 2018, Sri Lanka’s annual Primary Balance has consistently been a deficit with 2021 reporting the large...
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Defence budget for uniforms and diets alone up by...
Based on the 2024 budget estimates, expenditure on uniforms and diets in the defence sector is projected to increase by a significant LKR 75 billion, a 258 percent rise compared to 2022.
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வட்டிச் செலவுகள் அரச வருமானத்தை விழுங்கிக்கொண்டிரு...
வரலாற்றில் முதல் முறையாக, 2023 ஆம் ஆண்டில், அரசாங்கம் அதன் மொத்த உள்நாட்டு உற்பத்தியில் 9% ஐ வட்டிக் கொடுப்பனவுகளுக்காக செலவிட்டுள்ளது, இது அரச வருமானத்தில் 80% ஆகும். ...
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