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Maldives’ reserves continue to dip
The external reserves of the Maldives have been on a declining trend since June 2020. At that time, the gross reserves held by the Maldives Monetary Authority amounted to USD 702.5 million , sufficient to finance 5.2 months of imports. However, by September 2024, the reserves had fallen to USD 371.2 million, covering only 1.1 months of imports. This situation mirrors what happened in Sri Lanka, which faced its worst economic crisis after its usable external reserves plummeted from USD 6,695 million (6.4 months of imports) in June 2020 to USD 308 million (0.18 months of imports) by April 2022. The rapid decline forced Sri Lanka to default on its external debts due to a shortage of foreign exchange. With assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sri Lanka is now undergoing debt restructuring, temporarily halting debt repayments and increasing foreign exchange inflows. While the Maldives' reserves are declining at a slower rate—0.08 months of import coverage lost per month compared to Sri Lanka's 0.25 months per month—the trend is still concerning. At this pace, the Maldives could face a similar crisis within the next 2 years. It is crucial for the Maldives to identify these warning signs early. Proactive measures, such as pre-emptive debt restructuring, can be less harmful than dealing with a disorderly default. Early intervention can help stabilise the economy and avoid the severe consequences as experienced in Sri Lanka.
Featured Insight
Maldives’ reserves continue to dip
The external reserves of the Maldives have been on a declining trend since June 2020. At that time, the gross reserves held by the Maldives Monetary Authority amounted to USD 702.5 million , sufficient to finance 5.2 months of imports. However, by September 2024, the reserves had fallen to USD 371.2 million, covering only 1.1 months of imports. This situation mirrors what happened in Sri Lanka, which faced its worst economic crisis after its usable external reserves plummeted from USD 6,695 million (6.4 months of imports) in June 2020 to USD 308 million (0.18 months of imports) by April 2022. The rapid decline forced Sri Lanka to default on its external debts due to a shortage of foreign exchange. With assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sri Lanka is now undergoing debt restructuring, temporarily halting debt repayments and increasing foreign exchange inflows. While the Maldives' reserves are declining at a slower rate—0.08 months of import coverage lost per month compared to Sri Lanka's 0.25 months per month—the trend is still concerning. At this pace, the Maldives could face a similar crisis within the next 2 years. It is crucial for the Maldives to identify these warning signs early. Proactive measures, such as pre-emptive debt restructuring, can be less harmful than dealing with a disorderly default. Early intervention can help stabilise the economy and avoid the severe consequences as experienced in Sri Lanka.
Featured Insight
Maldives’ reserves continue to dip
The external reserves of the Maldives have been on a declining trend since June 2020. At that time, the gross reserves held by the Maldives Monetary Authority amounted to USD 702.5 million , sufficient to finance 5.2 months of imports. However, by September 2024, the reserves had fallen to USD 371.2 million, covering only 1.1 months of imports. This situation mirrors what happened in Sri Lanka, which faced its worst economic crisis after its usable external reserves plummeted from USD 6,695 million (6.4 months of imports) in June 2020 to USD 308 million (0.18 months of imports) by April 2022. The rapid decline forced Sri Lanka to default on its external debts due to a shortage of foreign exchange. With assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sri Lanka is now undergoing debt restructuring, temporarily halting debt repayments and increasing foreign exchange inflows. While the Maldives' reserves are declining at a slower rate—0.08 months of import coverage lost per month compared to Sri Lanka's 0.25 months per month—the trend is still concerning. At this pace, the Maldives could face a similar crisis within the next 2 years. It is crucial for the Maldives to identify these warning signs early. Proactive measures, such as pre-emptive debt restructuring, can be less harmful than dealing with a disorderly default. Early intervention can help stabilise the economy and avoid the severe consequences as experienced in Sri Lanka.
Featured Insight
Maldives’ reserves continue to dip
The external reserves of the Maldives have been on a declining trend since June 2020. At that time, the gross reserves held by the Maldives Monetary Authority amounted to USD 702.5 million , sufficient to finance 5.2 months of imports. However, by September 2024, the reserves had fallen to USD 371.2 million, covering only 1.1 months of imports. This situation mirrors what happened in Sri Lanka, which faced its worst economic crisis after its usable external reserves plummeted from USD 6,695 million (6.4 months of imports) in June 2020 to USD 308 million (0.18 months of imports) by April 2022. The rapid decline forced Sri Lanka to default on its external debts due to a shortage of foreign exchange. With assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sri Lanka is now undergoing debt restructuring, temporarily halting debt repayments and increasing foreign exchange inflows. While the Maldives' reserves are declining at a slower rate—0.08 months of import coverage lost per month compared to Sri Lanka's 0.25 months per month—the trend is still concerning. At this pace, the Maldives could face a similar crisis within the next 2 years. It is crucial for the Maldives to identify these warning signs early. Proactive measures, such as pre-emptive debt restructuring, can be less harmful than dealing with a disorderly default. Early intervention can help stabilise the economy and avoid the severe consequences as experienced in Sri Lanka.
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Insights and analysis on the financing of the budget deficit.
Composition of Sri Lanka's Gross Official Reserves
The reported gross official reserves as of February 2022 stood at USD 2,311 MN, out of which 98% (USD 2,242 MN) consisted of short-term swaps maturing within 12 months. Whilst the quantity of reserves is important it is eq...
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Economy Next
Sri Lanka and IMF reach deal for US$2.9bn program
The International Monetary Fund said it had reached a deal with Sri Lanka for a 4-year 2.9 billion US dollar extended fund facility subject to debt restructuring and prior actions. Under the program the budget will have to generate a primary...
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Source:
Island
Fitch Downgrades Sri Lanka to ‘C’
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘C’ from ‘CC’. The issue ratings on foreign-currency bonds issued on international markets have...
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Source:
EconomyNext
Sri Lanka 2021 budget deficit revised up to 9.5-pc...
Sri Lanka’s 2021 budget deficit has been revised up to 9.5 percent of gross domestic product from the initial 8.9 percent target presented to parliament with nominal GDP for the year revised down, official data shows. The nominal overa...
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Insight on Financing
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Sri Lanka, amidst...
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Featured
Sri Lanka Met 33 IMF Commitments and failed 8 by e...
Sri Lanka had verifiably met 33 of the trackable programme commitments of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme as at the end of June 2023 but had failed eight, according to the ‘IMF Tracker', an online tool lau...
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Sectoral Allocations: Budget 2024
Sectoral allocations from the 2024 Budget.Allocations above only include Central Government allocations. Provincial allocations are not included...
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Sharing the cost of the crisis: The need to restru...
This article was compiled by Professor Udara Peiris. Udara Peiris joined Oberlin in the fall of 2022. He was previously a tenured Associate Professor of Fi...
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